PHASE 8 · EXPLAINABLE AI

Why UP?

Transparent supporting evidence, opposing evidence, model contribution and risk drivers.

EVIDENCE · NOT CAUSAL PROOF
5 trading days
AAPL · 5-DAY FORECAST

UP 46.8%

AAPL is forecast UP at 46.8% calibrated probability; the explanation shows supporting and opposing evidence rather than a causal claim.

UP46.8%SIDEWAYS11.0%DOWN42.1%
Model Agreement38/100Weighted component consensus
Evidence Coverage87/100Available explanation domains
Evidence Conflict41/100Higher = more opposing evidence
Data Quality100/100Feature completeness
SUPPORTING CASE

Why UP?

6 signals
TECHNICAL90/100

Primary trend structure

EMA50 is 14.93% above EMA200.

trend_ema_50_200EMA50 vs EMA200PIT SAFE
TECHNICAL69/100

63-day momentum

63-day momentum is +11.42%.

momentum_6363-day total price momentumPIT SAFE
TECHNICAL65/100

Short/medium trend alignment

EMA20 is 1.91% above EMA50.

trend_ema_20_50EMA20 vs EMA50PIT SAFE
FUNDAMENTAL62/100

Revenue growth

Revenue growth is +11.2% year over year.

revenue_growth_yoyYoY growthPIT SAFE
FUNDAMENTAL60/100

EPS growth

EPS growth is +10.4% year over year.

eps_growth_yoyYoY growthPIT SAFE
FUNDAMENTAL60/100

Operating profitability

Operating margin is 23.9%.

operating_marginOperating marginPIT SAFE
OPPOSING CASE

Why DOWN?

2 signals
MARKET_REGIME67/100

Broad-market regime

Benchmark regime is BEAR with composite score -39.6.

market_regimeregime score -39.6PIT SAFE
TECHNICAL54/100

MACD momentum

MACD histogram is negative, indicating negative momentum pressure.

macd_histMACD histogram signPIT SAFE
MODEL CONTRIBUTION

How the Ensemble Voted

vesteliq-xai-v8.0
ModelPreferredWeightUP supportSide supportDOWN support
XGBOOSTtabular gradient boostingUP23.8%11.4%2.5%9.9%
LIGHTGBMtabular gradient boostingDOWN23.0%8.5%1.9%12.6%
FUNDAMENTALpoint in time fundamentalSIDEWAYS15.7%4.8%6.7%4.2%
SENTIMENTpoint in time sentimentUP14.1%5.4%4.6%4.2%
TRANSFORMERtemporal deep learningSIDEWAYS12.5%3.3%4.9%4.3%
LSTMtemporal deep learningSIDEWAYS10.9%3.0%4.3%3.7%

Weighted support is the component probability multiplied by its learned ensemble probability weight. It is not causal feature importance.

RISK DRIVERS

What Could Break the Forecast?

RISK52/100

Phase-6 risk engine scores current risk at 52/100 (ELEVATED).

RISK_ENGINE52/100

Volatility is in the upper quartile of its trailing one-year distribution

RISK_ENGINE52/100

Asset is currently in a double-digit drawdown

AUDIT & GOVERNANCE

Explanation Controls

Methodevidence synthesis + calibrated ensemble contribution decomposition
Causal explanationNO
Live market dataNO
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VESTELIQ shows evidence for and against the forecast. Explanations are diagnostic and associative; they do not prove that any feature caused a future stock movement.